Analytical Briefing — 02.08.2026 05:11

The massive nighttime drone attack on Ukraine (Kharkiv, Odesa, Kyiv Oblast) against the backdrop of "unrest" in Kerch indicates Russia's attempt to exhaust air defense before a new missile strike. The drop in oil below $85 pressures the Russian budget, and the violation of Polish airspace by a missile pushes NATO to review the eastern flank. Kyiv is preparing an asymmetric response in Crimea.